Lewis Hamilton and McLaren are very much in the ascendancy. Hamilton won with ease in Monaco — although Ferrari were quick in the principality; in Canada Lewis had by far the fastest set of wheels before banging into Kimi; in France McLaren's true pace was never revealed because of the various penalties doled out (although Ferrari comfortably out qualfiied their rivals); in Britain it was Kovalainen who was dominant, some six-tenths quicker than his rivals; and Lewis owned Germany.

For at least four of the last five GP the silver car has been quicker than the red car. What will happen at the Hungaroring?

Historically the track favours McLaren — Lewis Hamilton won here last year after his famous infraction with Alonso. McLaren's edge in mechanical grip is well suited to the slow, twisty corners in the central European country — they've won four out of the last ten races here.

However, that was the prevailing view in Monaco and who was on the front row? Yes, two Ferraris. The balance between the two teams can swing on the smallest of developments. Last year it was clear which tracks would suit McLaren and which Ferrari, whereas this year it is more blurred.

Perhaps because McLaren won at the relatively high speed tracks of Silverstone and Hockenheim, does this mean that Ferrari are more likely to prevail?

No. In Germany McLaren's advantage was achieved in sector 3, which was the slower stadium section.

Although the data favour McLaren, it wouldn't surprise me if Ferrari end up taking the win. The team had a good test session in Jerez and claim to have discovered the root of their Germany problems (but who really knows). Like McLaren, the Scuderia have also been intensively developing their car. The team has already announced that it'll deploy a shark fin engine cover. The shark fin improves stability under braking and also the efficiency of the rear wing in yaw.

McLaren could also debut their shark fin cover. They tested it in Germany but opted not to race it. In Jerez the team tried elephant ears, which may also make an appearance. The 2009 season can't start soon enough when the cars should be restored to their former, sleek glory.

And as for the other teams?

At this stage of the season the midfield teams tend to turn an eye to the upcoming season, especially when there is a big change in the regulations. Expect Red Bull to be strong and show that they remain the best of the midfield. Trulli and Alonso will also qualify well.

BMW have been off the pace for a few races and the Heidfeld/Kubica battle still feels to have mileage. Kubica is slipping away from Championship contention and needs a big result to reassert himself &mdash it probably won't happen.

Perhaps the most interesting story concerns Piquet. Renault fans will be keen to discover whether he can build on the fluky second place he scored two weeks back.

If it rains, as the forecast suggests, anything could happen.