German GP Preview

Practice

With race 10 of a busy season getting underway this weekend the championship couldn't be closer with Hamilton, Massa and Raikkonen tied for the lead on 48 points. The theory is that the ring should be a Ferrari track but Lewis looked strong in his McLaren during practice.

These previews all get a bit samey don't you think. It goes something like this:

One team gets the upper hand in practice, usually Ferrari. I then point out that free practice is a pointless measure of performance because there are so many varying factors. I then blindly speculate the relative merits of the drivers based on anecdotes and the odd data point. You read and nod but pay little attention — it is free practice after all and, as I said, it doesn't matter.

How come then Ferrari and McLaren tend to top the timesheets with alarming regularity? Actually the team that has the quickest car at the weekend tends to stamp its authority in the practice sessions.

Look at Silverstone a fortnight ago. The McLaren of Kovalainen was comfortably the best car in free practice. He then went and stuck his car on pole by an astonishing six-tenths of a second.

Dial back to France. Ferrari had the upper hand and, you guessed it, were faster in practice. In Montreal McLaren dominated both practice, qualifying and the first race stint before Hamilton rode the red light. In fact in Monaco, Malaysia, Australia, Spain and Bahrain the team that had the upper hand in practice was fastest.

Let's debunk the myth that free practice isn't important. It is. And it gives a strong indicator as to which team is likely to dominate the Grand Prix weekend.

And that brings us nicely on to Hockenheimring. One man and one car stole the show in both the morning and afternoon sessions: Lewis Hamilton. In practice 2 he was seven-tenths of a second faster than both Ferraris. In practice 1 he was quicker by a couple of tenths albeit on a drying surface where P1 was swapping hands faster than EPO at the Tour de France.

Sure Lewis put on the softer rubber to sail round in his P1 time. Before then, on the prime tyre, he and Massa we neck and neck — in fact Massa had his nose in front.

Peel under the hood a bit more and before Massa set his time Hamilton had a consistent edge of a couple of tenths over both Ferrari drivers — Massa's quick run was probably on lower fuel.

So what does it all mean for qualifying?

You can never rule anything out of course but it looks like Lewis Hamilton is a reasonable bet for pole. Ferrari and McLaren are very evenly matched. Kovalainen couldn't beat either Ferrari in the second session and will probably struggle to make the front row tomorrow.

Don't be surprised to see Hamilton fuel slightly lighter to make sure he grabs pole and extends a lead in the opening few laps. The risk of a safety car is low and starting from the dirty side of the track can be a severe penalty — a P2 start is probably good for third off the start line.

Add some dodgy weather into the mix and it could be a very exciting race. Bring it on!