Another way to decide who'll be Champion

Drivers

At this time of year speculation is rife about who are the contenders for the Drivers' Championship. Will Lewis triumph over Kimi? What about Massa or even Alonso? John Beamer cuts through the speculation and analyses the data to answer who is most likely to win this year.

Note: All the charts in this article are from before the Australian Grand Prix race (although after qualifying).

You know what the problem with speculation is? It usually involves absolutely zero science.

Why is that a problem?

I suppose it isn't except it is one person's opinion. Far better to know what many different people think — the so called "Wisdom of the Crowds" phenomenon.

The good news is that the technology to do this exists and is easily accessible on the Internet.

Betfair is the culmination of many peoples' perspectives on how well each driver will do. Even better each individual has skin in the game, which gives a more accurate view.

Let's dive in and look at how the betting on a few drivers has evolved (all images courtesy of Betfair.com.

Lewis Hamilton

Here is the chart for Lewis:

hamilton.jpg

The red line is the price in decimal odds. A price of 4 implies odds of 3/1 in old money. What does this chart tell us?

First, that for the majority of the pre-season the odds of Hamilton winning the Championship hovered between 3.5 and 4. However, very recently it has dropped closer to 3.

The reason is that there were question marks surrounding the MP4/23 given all the winter uncertainty. Now Hamilton has proved his pace in Melbourne, pundits have greater faith is Hamilton's ability to challenge. If he can win the Australian Grand Prix expect another cut in the odds.

Kimi Raikonnen

The Raikonnen chart is also pretty interesting. Even though Hamilton's odds have narrowed that has not been at the expense of Kimi's.

raikonnen.jpg

As Ferrari continued to prove their superiority throughout winter testing, punters gradually reduced the odds of Raikonnen repeating his 2007 Championship victory.

However, as Australian free practice got underway and the McLarens were on the pace Kimi's odds peaked a bit. Still, he's favourite to pip Hamilton to the title.

Fernando Alonso

Before signing off this session take a quick gander at Fernando Alonso whose odds of winning were 10 before he decided to move to Renault — there will still some expectancy that he would stay at McLaren (though a move away was clearly priced in).

alonso1.jpg

Odds increased as the R28 was off the pace in testing. As the clear superiority of Ferrari, McLaren, and to a lesser extent BMW and Williams, was confirmed, Alonso's odds lengthened considerably.

Watch this space

We'll continue to keep track of driver and team odds over the course of the season to give us another lens with which to analyse the Championship.